One of the most common statements, when the whole NFL-National Anthem discussion comes up, is – “Their ratings are dropping, so that proves that…” the audience hates them, or whatever. That kind of blanket statement always makes me twitchy. Unless you can back it up with some facts, it’s just “fake news”. So now that we’ve got a bit of the season on the boards, I thought I’d take a closer look and see what’s really going on.
Here’s the first thing to note. Television ratings for NFL games so far are, in fact, down from the same time last year. The drop is right around five percent to the corresponding time in the 2016 season. So at the surface, it would appear that the argument has legs. A little deeper look shows just how short those legs are.
If you look at the ratings for network programming overall (that’s all programming including sports), you discover that ratings are down there as well. On average, for the four major networks, ratings are down eight percent. That span ranges from a four percent drop for NBC to a twenty percent drop at Fox. That’s over the first month of the fall season, according to the folks at Nielsen. So compared to the wider numbers, the NFL is actually outperforming the industry as a whole. That puts a serious hole in the argument.
We do know two things that are generally credited with lower viewership. The first is simple overexposure. More voices are being raised, including with the broadcast partners, that the NFL is on the air too often. Sunday afternoon, and evening and Monday night and Thursday night. Once college football is over we’ll start seeing them on Saturdays too. Sunday afternoons used to be special. Not so much anymore.
Then there’s the whole cord-cutting problem. People watch television differently than they used to. Viewing of sports events on streaming platforms is up. Last year NFL streaming on Twitter averaged just under a quarter million views for Thursday nights. This year on Amazon has shown over three hundred seventy thousand on average. Those people don’t show up as TV ratings. But they’re still watching. Another hole in the argument.
Finally, it’s worth noting that the networks pulled in more advertising dollars for the NFL games than last year. Not a lot more, but more. That number has some wiggle in it, but it shows the advertisers still believe.
Some folks claim they’ll “never watch the NFL again”. I think once the current kerfluffle passes, the habits developed over the last fifty years will return.
The NFL may have 99 problems, but the ratings really aren’t one of them.
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